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January Auto Sales Expected to Be Flat

| January 27, 2017

Industry experts that specialize on determining the future resale value of a vehicle project total new vehicle sales, including fleet deliveries, will reach 1,130,500 units in January, down 1.5 percent from a year ago.

This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 17.5 million units for the month, down from an 18.4 million-unit SAAR a year ago. Excluding fleet sales, U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks should remain flat with 923,369 units.

“Exceptionally strong sales to close out 2016 led to a slow start in January, but additional incentives towards the end of the month helped pick up the slack,” said Eric Lyman, ALG’s chief industry analyst.

Incentive spending by automakers averaged an estimated $3,635 per vehicle in January, up 21.6 percent from a year ago, and down 3.3 percent from December 2016.

“On a year-over-year basis, Honda is gaining about 0.5 percent market share on the continued popularity of its new products in the compact utility and pick up segments,” said Lyman.

Other key findings for January:

  • Registration mix is expected to be 81.7 percent retail sales and 18.3 percent fleet versus 80.5 percent retail and 19.5 percent fleet last January.
  • Total used auto sales, including franchise and independent dealerships and private-party transactions, may reach 3,139,957, up 7.9 percent from January 2016.

Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada.

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Category: Consumer

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