Diesel to Dwindle in Class 8 Engines in Five Years

The demise of diesel in class 8 engines may be a be premature, but according to a new study, the sector will contract within the next five years.

According to a new analysis from ACT Research and Rhein Associates, while diesel engines made up 98.5% of the North American Class 8 vehicle market in 2015, the group forecast this dominance to lessen by 2021.

“This new report details current and future OEM offerings, the engine-related regulations in the pipeline and the impact of these regulations on the market, as well as our forecast for the North American commercial vehicle engine industry through 2021,” said Tom Rhein, President of Rhein Associates. He added, “For instance, the Class 8 production was split 75.5% tractor to 24.5% truck in 2015, but we expect the truck share to grow as explained in the report.”

According to ACT’s senior partner and general manager, Ken Vieth, “We see captive engines gain in market share, as in-house models increase and displacements are reduced.” Vieth continued, “While we don’t expect a complete reversal by 2021, the industry is certainly going through a transition. Diesel dominates, but the share will narrow, and non-captive engines are likely to decline, barring any unforeseen circumstances.” He added, “With the impending GHG Phase Two regulations and growth of vertical integration across the supply chain, and with the constant push for engine efficiencies and reduced emissions simultaneously, now seemed like the time to apply our models and expertise collaboratively to provide intel unlike any other available.”

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Category: Fuel and Oil