Autonomous Vehicle Sales Set to Soar
If you believe in the power of technology and the promise of driverless vehicles, check this out: The latest forecast from IHS Automotive calls for sales of nearly 21 million autonomous vehicles by 2035.
This is a substantial increase from previous estimates, and is influenced by recent research and development by automotive OEMs, supplier and technology companies who are investing in this area. The new forecast is also based on a wave of recent developments and investments in this sector of the market, as well as activity within various regulatory environments.
The United States will lead the world in initial deployment and early adoption of autonomous vehicles, while Japan will simultaneously ramp up industry coordination and investment ahead of the Summer Olympics in Tokyo in 2020.
“Global sales of autonomous vehicles will reach nearly 600,000 units in 2025,” said Egil Juliussen, Ph.D. and director of research at IHS Automotive. “Our new forecast reflects a 43 percent compound annual growth rate between 2025 and 2035 – a decade of substantial growth, as driverless and self-driving cars alike are more widely adopted in all key global automotive markets,” he said.
Key factors influencing this growth are compelling.
New mobility solutions such as ride sharing and car sharing programs, increasing investment in autonomy by OEMs, suppliers and technology companies alike, research and development centers underway and improved efficiencies are expected to impact the further proliferation of automotive technologies.
What’s more, the U.S. market is expected to see the earliest deployment of autonomous vehicles as it works through challenges posed by regulation, liability and consumer acceptance. Deployment in the U.S. will begin with several thousand autonomous vehicles in 2020, which will grow to nearly 4.5 million vehicles by 2035, according to IHS Automotive forecasts.
Despite a later start, IHS Automotive forecasts more than 5.7 million vehicles sold in China in 2035 will be equipped with some level of autonomy, the single largest market for the technology, according to analysts. The sheer volume of vehicles expected to be sold there as well as consumer demand for new technologies will drive growth, with more upside possible as regulators assess the potential of autonomous mobility to address safety and environmental concerns.
Major markets in Western Europe will maintain industry technology leadership through the premium segment, with a little more than 3 million autonomous vehicles expected to be sold in 2035 and another 1.2 million vehicles in Eastern Europe. IHS Automotive also forecasts more than 1 million vehicles with some level of autonomy in the Middle East and Africa in 2035, with the potential for new and innovative business models and use cases.
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